ABD’de d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o devri devam ederken, Trump’\u0131n 20 Ocak’ta 47. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6reve ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte, vergi d\u00fczenlemelerinden g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerine kadar geni\u015f bir yelpazede bir dizi kararnameyi hayata ge\u00e7irmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Singapur’dan Rae Wee, New York’tan Lewis Krauskopf, Londra’dan Alun John, Karin Strohecker ve Amanda Cooper gelecek hafta global piyasalarda takip edilmesi gereken ana hususlar\u0131 derlediler.<\/p>\n
TRUMP 20 OCAK’TA KOLTUKTA<\/b><\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Trump’\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki ikinci devrine ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6revdeki birinci g\u00fcn\u00fcnde bir dizi ba\u015fkanl\u0131k kararnamesi imzalamakta kararl\u0131 olan Trump, kimi spek\u00fclasyonlara nazaran, yemin merasiminin \u00e7abucak akabinde, hatta merasim ge\u00e7idinden evvel ad\u0131mlar atabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak, ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Martin Luther King Jr. g\u00fcn\u00fc nedeniyle kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n tam olarak reaksiyon vermesinin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayaca\u011f\u0131 manas\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileriyle ilgili muhtemel bir atak, para \u00fcnitelerini ve b\u00fcy\u00fck global \u00fcreticilerin paylar\u0131 \u00fczerinde tesirli olan s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131lar ve yalanlamalarla dolu bir periyotta dikkatle izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Trump’\u0131n \u00f6nerdi\u011fi vergi indirimleri ve g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin enflasyonist tesirler yaratmas\u0131 ve \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemesi beklentisiyle uzun vadeli tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Ancak, ABD’nin (kamu) borcunun GSYH’ye oran\u0131 %100’e yakla\u015f\u0131rken eski ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) yetkilileri, tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda pusuya yatan potansiyel riskler olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorguluyor.<\/p>\n
\u015e\u0130RKETLER\u0130N Q4 B\u0130LAN\u00c7OLARI<\/b><\/p>\n
ABD \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydedece\u011fine ve paylar\u0131 destekleyece\u011fine inanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n beklentileri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta netle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n
ABD’li \u015firketlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta 2024’\u00fcn son \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak ve bu y\u0131l hakk\u0131nda ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 verecek.<\/p>\n
Gelecek hafta, Netflix\u00a0NFLX.O<\/span>, Johnson & Johnson\u00a0JNJ.N<\/span>, Procter & Gamble\u00a0PG.N<\/span>\u00a0ve American Express\u00a0AXP.N<\/span>\u00a0gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketler d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak.<\/p>\n B\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar, 15 Ocak’ta bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya ba\u015flarken, ABD’nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rlar\u0131, arac\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin artmas\u0131 ve pay senedi piyasalar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrin takviyesiyle y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n LSEG IBES’in 15 Ocak bilgilerine nazaran, S&P 500 \u015firketlerinin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n t\u0131pk\u0131 devrine nazaran %10.4 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n SAVA\u015e, BARI\u015e VE DAVOS<\/b><\/p>\n Trump’\u0131n Ukrayna ve Ortado\u011fu’daki sava\u015flar\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 belirlemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Gazze’de 15 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131n sonlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130srail ve Hamas’\u0131n imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ate\u015fkes muahedesinin Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi bekleniyor. \u0130stikrar sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentiler, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerindeki tahvil ve paylar\u0131 desteklerken petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00f6nlendirebilir.<\/p>\n \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 doldurmak \u00fczere olan Ukrayna’daki sava\u015fta bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 Trump’\u0131n vadetti\u011fi \u00fczere misyonunun birinci g\u00fcn\u00fcnde sa\u011flanmayabilir lakin piyasalar bar\u0131\u015f sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeyi nas\u0131l tekrar \u015fekillendirebilece\u011fine dair haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Trump’\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Davos’ta bir ortaya gelecek \u00f6nder ve CEO’lara telefonla seslenmesi bekleniyor. \u0130\u015ftirak\u00e7iler ortas\u0131nda Ukrayna Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Volodymyr Zelenskiy ve \u0130srailli yetkililer de olacak. Tepe \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczenlenen anket nazaran, 2025’teki ana risk sava\u015f.<\/p>\n ENERJ\u0130DE \u0130K\u0130L\u0130 SORUN<\/b><\/p>\n Avrupal\u0131 yetkililerin tam da istemedikleri \u015fey ba\u015flar\u0131na geliyor: Bor\u00e7lanma ve g\u00fc\u00e7 maliyetlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f.<\/p>\n Petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131\u00a0LCOc1<\/span>,\u00a0CLc1<\/span>\u00a0Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin Rus ham petrol\u00fcne getirece\u011fi daha fazla yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara dair tasalarla yaln\u0131zca bu ay %10 y\u00fckselirken, k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131n\u0131n tam ortas\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz fiyazlar\u0131 daha da y\u00fckseldi\u00a0TRNLTTFMc1<\/span>,\u00a0NGc1<\/span>.<\/p>\n Avrupa i\u00e7in daha fazla tasa verici \u00f6b\u00fcr bir \u015fey ise euronun\u00a0EUR=EBS<\/span>\u00a0dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 14 ayl\u0131k en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyine inmesiyle parite neredeyse 1 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Rusya<\/span>‘n\u0131n \u015eubat 2022’de Ukrayna’y\u0131 i\u015fgale kalk\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne ABD, Avrupa’ya en \u00e7ok s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz satan \u00fclke ve ham petrol i\u00e7in de\u011ferli bir kaynak oldu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131lya eurodaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 maliyetlerinde de tesiri olacak. Aral\u0131k euro b\u00f6lgesi son enflasyon datalar\u0131nda \u015fimdi tesirli olmasa da lakin gelecekte istenmeyen s\u00fcrprizlere yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n ARTI\u015e OLACAK MI OLMAYACAK MI?<\/b><\/p>\n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) gelecek hafta bu y\u0131l\u0131n birinci siyaset toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczenleyecek. Alt\u0131 ay\u0131n taban d\u00fczeylerinde olan yen i\u00e7in faizlerin y\u00fckseltilmesi g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcreksiz de olsa bir tahlil olabilir.<\/p>\n Merkez bankas\u0131 yetkilileri de piyasaya bu tarafta bir mesaj veriyor. Banka ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda ve banka yetkilisi Ryozo Himino faiz art\u0131rma karar\u0131n\u0131n BOJ’nin 23-24 Ocak’taki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n Toplant\u0131n\u0131n ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilen Donald Trump’\u0131n yemin merasiminden birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi de, Trump’\u0131n siyasetlerinin mali piyasalarda nas\u0131l bir tesire yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmeleri i\u00e7in BOJ yetkililerine vakit tan\u0131yacak.<\/p>\n BOJ yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n akabinde Ocak’ta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131ran i\u015flemciler, vadeli s\u00fcre\u00e7lere nazaran bankan\u0131n %70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla 25 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Global yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Donald Trump’\u0131n Beyaz Saray’a d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn piyasalar, global ticaret ve milletleraras\u0131 ba\u011flar \u00fczerindeki tesirlerini merakla bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13739,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[82,92,2958,1880,2959],"class_list":["post-13738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-banka","tag-piyasalar","tag-trumpin","tag-yetkililer"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13738"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13738\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13740,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13738\/revisions\/13740"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13739"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}