T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) anketinde piyasa i\u015ftirak\u00e7ilerinin y\u0131l sonu t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 (T\u00dcFE) beklentisi Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n telaffuzlar\u0131n\u0131n tersine %27,05’ten %28,30’a y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/p>\n
TCMB, \u015eubat ay\u0131na ait “Piyasa \u0130\u015ftirak\u00e7ileri Anketi” sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131 Piyasa \u0130\u015ftirak\u00e7ileri Anketi, ger\u00e7ek dal ve finansal b\u00f6l\u00fcm temsilcilerinden olu\u015fan 69 i\u015ftirak\u00e7i taraf\u0131ndan yan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f ve sonu\u00e7lar i\u015ftirak\u00e7ilerin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 toplula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u015fu bi\u00e7imde olu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n
“Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n cari y\u0131l sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (T\u00dcFE) beklentisi bir evvelki anket devrinde y\u00fczde 27,05 iken, bu anket devrinde y\u00fczde 28,30 olmu\u015ftur. 12 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisi bir evvelki anket periyodunda y\u00fczde 25,38 iken, bu anket devrinde y\u00fczde 25,26 olmu\u015ftur. 24 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE beklentisi ise birebir anket periyotlar\u0131nda s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 17,72 ve y\u00fczde 17,26 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131 anket devrinde, i\u015ftirak\u00e7ilerin 12 ay sonras\u0131na ait m\u00fcmk\u00fcnl\u00fck varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, T\u00dcFE’nin ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 22,80 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 21,00 \u2013 23,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 41,11 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 24,00 \u2013 26,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 21,46 olas\u0131l\u0131kla ise y\u00fczde 27,00 – 29,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 anket periyodunda nokta kestirimler (2) temel al\u0131narak yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmeye nazaran ise, i\u015ftirak\u00e7ilerin y\u00fczde 14,52\u2019sinin beklentilerinin y\u00fczde 21,00 \u2013 23,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 48,39\u2019unun beklentilerinin y\u00fczde 24,00 \u2013 26,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 19,35\u2019inin beklentilerinin y\u00fczde 27,00 \u2013 29,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zlenmektedir.<\/p>\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131 anket devrinde, i\u015ftirak\u00e7ilerin 24 ay sonras\u0131na ait m\u00fcmk\u00fcnl\u00fck varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, T\u00dcFE’nin ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 24,02 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 13,00 \u2013 15,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 36,87 olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u00fczde 16,00 \u2013 18,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 24,28 olas\u0131l\u0131kla ise y\u00fczde 19,00 \u2013 21,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 anket devrinde nokta tahminler(2) temel al\u0131narak yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmeye nazaran, 24 ay sonras\u0131 T\u00dcFE enflasyonu beklentileri de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, i\u015ftirak\u00e7ilerin y\u00fczde 26,79\u2018unun beklentilerinin y\u00fczde 13,00 – 15,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde
33,93\u2018\u00fcn\u00fcn beklentilerinin y\u00fczde 16,00 \u2013 18,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fczde 28,57\u2018sinin beklentilerinin y\u00fczde 19,00 \u2013 21,99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zlenmektedir.<\/p>\n
Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n B\u0130ST Repo ve Ters-Repo Pazar\u0131\u2019nda olu\u015fan cari ay sonu gecelik faiz oran\u0131 beklentisi bir evvelki anket devrinde y\u00fczde 45,00 iken, bu anket devrinde y\u00fczde 44,79 olmu\u015ftur. TCMB bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonras\u0131 beklentisi ise bir evvelki anket devrinde y\u00fczde 40,91 iken, bu anket devrinde y\u00fczde 40,00 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n cari y\u0131l sonu d\u00f6viz kuru (ABD Dolar\u0131\/TL) beklentisi bir evvelki anket periyodunda 43,03 TL iken, bu anket devrinde 42,89 TL olmu\u015ftur. 12 ay sonras\u0131 d\u00f6viz kuru beklentisi ise bir evvelki anket periyodunda 43,81 TL iken, bu anket devrinde 43,96 TL olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n GSYH 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi bir evvelki anket devrinde y\u00fczde 3,1 iken, bu anket periyodunda y\u00fczde 3,0 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. GSYH 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ise bir evvelki anket periyodunda oldu\u011fu \u00fczere bu anket devrinde de y\u00fczde 3,9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n her f\u0131rsatta de\u011findi\u011fi ‘enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor’ telaffuzlar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 etkilemedi. Merkez Bankas\u0131 Piyasa \u0130\u015ftirak\u00e7ileri anketine nazaran y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi %27,05’ten %28,30’a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":36295,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[5777,5775,5776,2342,604],"class_list":["post-36294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-iken","tag-katilimcilari","tag-olasilik","tag-sonu","tag-tufe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36294","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36294"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36294\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36296,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36294\/revisions\/36296"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36295"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36294"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36294"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36294"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}