D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Kurulu (WGC), yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cAlt\u0131n Piyasas\u0131 Yorumu\u201d raporunda, alt\u0131n\u0131n 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca tarihi d\u00fczeylere y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve y\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kapan\u0131\u015fla tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Rapora nazaran alt\u0131n, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 53 defa t\u00fcm vakitlerin en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ula\u015f\u0131rken, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 4.449 ABD dolar\u0131\/ons d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve y\u0131l\u0131 4.368 ABD dolar\u0131\/ons d\u00fczeyinde kapatt\u0131. Lakin alt\u0131n\u0131n as\u0131l y\u00fckseli\u015fi yar\u0131n 18.00’de verilecek karara ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n
POL\u0130T\u0130KA VE FA\u0130Z BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
Raporda, ABD Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi\u2019nin IEEPA temelli tarifelere ait karar\u0131n\u0131n 2026 ba\u015flar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ve bu karar\u0131n siyaset riskleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ehemmiyet ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ayr\u0131yeten, ABD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek GSY\u0130H bilgilerinin akabinde Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n tekrar fiyatlanmas\u0131 riskine dikkat \u00e7ekildi. Tarihi olarak 175 baz puan ve \u00fczeri faiz indirimlerinin tahvil getirilerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, lakin mevcut devirde enflasyon beklentilerinin daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu s\u00f6z edildi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Anayasa Mahkemesi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131ymetlendirme g\u00fcn\u00fc olarak belirledi. Piyasa uzmanlar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc mahkemeden Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerine ait a\u00e7\u0131lan davada birinci kararlar\u0131n gelmesinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n TS\u0130 18.00\u2019den itibaren a\u00e7\u0131klanabilece\u011fi kestirim ediliyor. <\/strong>Trump, Anayasa Mahkemesi\u2019nin g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri konusunda verece\u011fi karar\u0131 tarihin en de\u011ferli kararlar\u0131ndan biri olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor<\/p>\n ALTIN REKORLARLA DOLU B\u0130R YILI GER\u0130DE BIRAKTI<\/b><\/p>\n Raporda, alt\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4,2 getiri sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda y\u00fczde 67\u2019lik y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm ana para \u00fcniteleri baz\u0131nda t\u00fcm vakitlerin en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131, lakin d\u00f6viz kuru oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle y\u0131ll\u0131k en son getirilerde \u00fclkeler ortas\u0131nda farkl\u0131l\u0131klar olu\u015ftu\u011fu kaydedildi.<\/p>\n GET\u0130R\u0130LER\u0130N KAYNA\u011eI: OPS\u0130YONLAR VE DOLAR<\/b><\/p>\n D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin Alt\u0131n Getiri Atfetme Modeli\u2019ne (GRAM) nazaran, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda elde edilen getiride risk ve belirsizli\u011fin bir g\u00f6stergesi olan opsiyon s\u00fcre\u00e7leri k\u0131ymetli rol oynad\u0131. Model, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in yuan\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1,2 oran\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n, geli\u015fmekte olan piyasa d\u00f6viz s\u00fcre\u00e7leri yoluyla ayl\u0131k getiriye de\u011ferli katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K R\u0130SKLER VE OPS\u0130YON P\u0130YASASI ETK\u0130S\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n Raporda, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in modelde yer alan a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6z edildi. Bu periyotta jeopolitik riskler ve bilhassa A\u011fustos-Ekim aylar\u0131 ortas\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan opsiyon piyasas\u0131 faaliyetleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para \u00fcnitelerinin tesiriyle zay\u0131flayan ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi belirtildi. D\u00fc\u015fen getirilerin ise daha sonlu lakin tekrar de manal\u0131 bir katk\u0131 sundu\u011fu kaydedildi.<\/p>\n AYLIK K\u00dcM\u00dcLAT\u0130F GET\u0130R\u0130 VE P\u0130YASA DENGES\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n Raporda, alt\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k k\u00fcm\u00fclatif getirisinin y\u0131l boyunca olumsuz bir tesir yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekildi. Bu durumun, alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131nda dahi t\u00fcketici ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 talebinin ikili yap\u0131s\u0131 sayesinde kendi kendini dengeleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi s\u00f6z edildi. T\u0131pk\u0131 vakitte bu yap\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n\u0131n emtia kompleksi i\u00e7indeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ortalama oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n MERKEZ BANKALARI VE \u00d6TEK\u0130 KATKILAR<\/b><\/p>\n Y\u0131l boyunca kalan getiri katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, modelde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a yer almayan merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131, tarife kaynakl\u0131 tesirler yahut emtia ticaret dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 (CTA) ve perakende faaliyetlerden kaynaklanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi. T\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131k fakt\u00f6rler hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan daha y\u00fcksek sabit pahan\u0131n, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen daima talebi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6z edildi.<\/p>\n ETF VE VADEL\u0130 S\u00dcRE\u00c7 P\u0130YASALARI<\/b><\/p>\n Rapora nazaran Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda global alt\u0131n ETF\u2019leri, y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda oldu\u011fu \u00fczere y\u00fckl\u00fc olarak Kuzey Amerika fonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde arka arda yedinci ayda da net giri\u015f kaydetti. Vadeli s\u00fcre\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131nda ise y\u00f6netilen fonlar\u0131n net uzun konumlar\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 11 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 (59 ton) artarken, konumlar\u0131n bedeli 8 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi, tonaj baz\u0131nda ise 173 tonluk bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n DE\u011eERL\u0130 METALLERDE TAR\u0130H\u0130 FAKAT \u0130ST\u0130KRARSIZ Y\u00dcKSEL\u0130\u015e<\/b><\/p>\n Raporda, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki k\u0131ymetli metal y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin \u00f6l\u00e7ek olarak tarihi nitelikte oldu\u011fu lakin tabiat\u0131 gere\u011fi istikrars\u0131z seyretti\u011fi belirtildi. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve platin fiyatlar\u0131nda siyaset kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n belirginle\u015fti\u011fi, alt\u0131n\u0131n ise daha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f sergiledi\u011fi tabir edildi. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve platindeki dalgalanmalardan kaynaklanan k\u0131sa vadeli risklerin alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u00fcreksiz bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi, lakin orta vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7 metal i\u00e7in de olumlu kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n L\u0130K\u0130D\u0130TE VE OYNAKLIK AYRI\u015eMASI<\/b><\/p>\n Raporda, CME\u2019de art\u0131r\u0131lan teminat ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n tesiriyle ay sonuna hakikat bir d\u00fczeltme s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tabir edildi. Likiditenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu y\u0131l sonu periyodunda kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 konumlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131yla g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, platin ve paladyumda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i fiyat aral\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 d\u00fczeylerinin be\u015f kat\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n ise ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131rf \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n ALTININ YAPISAL DESTE\u011e\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal takviyenin s\u0131k\u0131 fizik\u00ee piyasalardan fazla makro rol\u00fcnden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131. Raporda, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daima talebi, siyaset belirsizlikleri ortam\u0131nda riskten korunma gereksinimi ve pay senedi-tahvil korelasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi devirlerde \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme talebinin alt\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi tabir edildi.<\/p>\n Raporda, Venezuela ve b\u00f6lgedeki geli\u015fmelerin tesirlerinin \u015fimdi netle\u015fmedi\u011fi fakat jeopolitik dalgalanmalar s\u0131ras\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n verdi\u011fi reaksiyonun dikkat al\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi. 2022 \u00f6ncesinde jeopolitik dalgalanmalardan en \u00e7ok yarar sa\u011flayan varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken, son devirde alt\u0131n\u0131n bu rol\u00fc \u00fcstlendi\u011fi ve inan\u00e7l\u0131 liman olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin \u201cAlt\u0131n Piyasas\u0131 Yorumu\u201dna nazaran alt\u0131n, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda rekor d\u00fczeylere ula\u015farak y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 67 getiriyle tamamlad\u0131. Raporda, yar\u0131n 18.00’de ABD’den gelecek karar\u0131n, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda f\u0131rlatabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":87788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[782,2109,3924,107,353],"class_list":["post-87787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-altin","tag-getiri","tag-orta","tag-raporda","tag-risk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87787"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87787\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87789,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87787\/revisions\/87789"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ikimisli.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}